Playoff picture coming into focus?

REGULAR SEASON STRETCH - 2011 PLAYOFFS LOOM!

As the 2010-2011 GMHL regular season enters its final few weeks, there's a great deal of excitement and interest in how teams will finish down the stretch, and how the playoff picture is coming into view.

The ebb and flow of this regular season has been interesting, to say the least, with several teams' fortunes changing drastically in short periods of time.

So, if the playoffs started today, things would look like this:

SOUTH PLAYOFF DIVISION

1. Shelburne

2. Bradford

3. Jamestown

4. Bobcaygeon

5. Deseronto

6. Toronto

7. Vaughan

Single-Game Elimination

7 Vaughan @ 6 Toronto

Qualifying Round

1 Shelburne (bye)

2 Bradford (bye)

3 Jamestown VS 6 Winner - Toronto/Vaughan

4.Bobcaygeon VS 5 Deseronto

NORTH PLAYOFF DIVISION

1. Elliot Lake

2. South Muskoka

3. Powassan

4. Sturgeon Falls

5. Oro-Medonte

6.  Algoma

Qualifying Round

1. Elliot Lake (bye)

2. South Muskoka (bye)

3. Powassan VS 6 Algoma

4. Sturgeon Falls VS 5 Oro-Medonte

To take it a step further and get a better picture of how the Quarter Finals would shape up,
let’s assume the higher placed teams win their series. Teams are seeded according to regular season standings:

Quarter Finals (Best of Five)

1. Elliot Lake VS 8 Sturgeon Falls

2. South Muskoka VS 7 Powassan

3. Shelburne VS 6 Bobcaygeon

4. Bradford VS 5 Jamestown

 

GMHL UPDATE (Jan. 28, 2011)

Elliot Lake and South Muskoka separated themselves from the rest of the pack early on this season and the battle for first place overall looks like it will go right down to the wire.  There's only a point between the two heading into action this weekend, and each with 9 games left to play.  The Cats had a chance to go two points up on the Shield with a game last night against Algoma, but in a result that most would call shocking, the Avalanche came through with a 7-6 shoot out victory, and the Cats only gained a single point.  The Shield play in Elliot Lake on the 4th of February and that could decide the GMHL's regular season champions, and home ice throughout the playoffs.  Both teams are a lock for the top 2 spots in the North Playoff Division to be used for the first round of playoffs, and will get a bye into the Quarter-Finals.

The Red Wings in Shelburne, the nearly all-Russian squad that has generated so much media interest in recent months, have been on a roll for quite a while now.  They've won 5 straight, and in their last 21 games, have won 16 times.  They currently sit tied for 3rd with Jamestown, who have gone 12 & 5 to climb the ladder and put themselves in position for the first round bye in the South Playoff Division, though the Bucks and Rattlers are within reach of both.  Shelburne and Jamestown still have two meetings with each other and have some other tough matchups down the stretch as well.  Shelburne still has Bradford and South Muskoka on the schedule, while the Jets still have games with Bradford and Bobcaygeon.

Bobcaygeon and Bradford are only a point apart, and don't face each other again this regular season.  The Bucks were solid in 3rd for some time, but had played several more games than many teams earlier on.  Now teams like Bradford and others have caught up in games played, the standings show a more realistic scenario of where teams belong relative to the league as a whole.  Both teams are 6 games over .500, with the Rattlers having a game in hand.  Both teams are 6-4 in their last 10.

Deseronto recently passed Powassan in the standings, with a steady if not spectacular 6 wins in their last nine games, while the Dragons have lost 5 straight and 13 or their last 17.  The Storm have been much better than they were earlier this year and with 3 straight wins over the Moose alone in the span of two weeks, have separated themselves from Toronto and moved up the ladder.  The Dragons have suffered some key losses with many of their strong Polish contingent of players now departed, leaving the club to use the trade route to fill in those gaps as best they could.  Deseronto have a tough schedule to finish, and in addition to another game with the slumping Moose, they must still face Shelburne, Bradford, Jamestown, along with 3 games against the Bucks.  Powassan doesn't have it any easier, with 3 against the Bobcats, and 1 game each against Shelburne, Bradford and Bobcaygeon.

Toronto and Vaughan are now neck and neck, where only a month ago, the story was quite different.  After a solid Boxing Day victory against the Wild, the Moose were pondering 3rd place, sitting at 13-10, with several games in hand on most of the teams in the league.  Since then, the Moose have fallen off a cliff, losing 8 straight games, including two to last place Oro-Medonte, with the only bright spots being single points from games against first-place Elliot Lake and 3rd place Shelburne.  The Wild, on the other hand, have won a respectable 8 of their last 14 to overcome an abysmal start to their season and climb within 2 points of the Moose.  These two teams play each twice more, and this could certainly turn out to be the two teams involved in the one-game elimination as the 6th and 7th place teams in the South Playoff Division.

As for Sturgeon Falls, Algoma and Oro-Medonte?  Sturgeon was 7-7 to start the season, but have fallen on some severe hard times since. 2 wins in their last 22 games, including losing streaks of 8 and 12 games, has them scrambling to find the right formula in time for the playoffs.  Algoma lost 18 straight at one point, but have shown some life lately with 5 wins in their last 12, including a stunner last night against the Bobcats, 7-6 in a shootout.  Oro-Medonte have been stuck near the bottom of the table most of the season, and though they've been competitive most nights for the last couple of months, only have 2 wins in their last 10, ironically both against the Moose.

With the GMHL's decision to align the league into North and South Divisions for the first round of the playoffs, the scenario for the Quarter-Finals still gives some of the lower standing teams a chance to move forward, though it also creates the situation where some higher standing teams will be left out beyond the first round.

 

 

 

PLEASE NOTE:  Tie Breakers in standings are as follows:

 

1.  Head to Head Record

2.  Total Wins

3.  Total Goal Differential - Regular Season

4.  Goal Differential - Head to Head